February iii, 2022

  • Brett Okamoto

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    Brett Okamoto

    ESPN Staff Writer

    • MMA columnist for ESPN.com
    • Analyst for "MMA Alive"
    • Covered MMA for Las Vegas Sun

  • Marc Raimondi

Conor McGregor is the biggest star in combat sports. Francis Ngannou is the baddest homo on the planet. Nate Diaz is one of the UFC's near beloved needle movers.

Every time ane of them steps into the Octagon, fans become excited. But right now, all of their UFC futures are in limbo.

McGregor, the one-time two-division UFC champion, is recovering from a broken leg suffered final July, leaving the timing of his return in question. Ngannou, the UFC heavyweight champion and a breathtaking knockout creative person, has fought out his contract and might non return to the UFC cage at all. And Diaz has just ane fight left on his deal -- how can the UFC brand the about of it?

Marc Raimondi and Brett Okamoto look into the future and try to sort out what'southward next for these iii UFC mainstays.

How did Nate Diaz and the UFC get to this point?

Raimondi: Diaz cashed in large after submitting McGregor at UFC 196 in March 2016. He signed a massive five-fight bargain with the UFC alee of the McGregor rematch at UFC 202 in August of that aforementioned year. Diaz lost that fight to McGregor via majority decision, but the bad male child from Stockton, California, just rose in popularity. The more screen time Diaz has received over the past several years, the brighter his star has shined -- regardless of the outcome.

On this five-fight contract, Diaz is 1-3 leading into the concluding fight of his deal. One of those fights was a blockbuster at Madison Square Garden against Jorge Masvidal for the mythical BMF title, which followed his win over old lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. He nearly finished top welterweight Leon Edwards in his most recent tour at UFC 263, but exterior of that moment, Edwards dominated and the bout resulted in a unanimous decision loss.

Although he'due south no longer in his prime, the weed-smoking, mean-mugging Diaz even so has a cult following. He turns 37 this year, and his reputation as a real fighter who will scrap -- inside or outside the cage -- with anyone still holds. Diaz is unpredictable and politically incorrect, and that's why many fans beloved him.

The question now is, volition he keep to be that guy in the UFC, or will he move on? Diaz is a bankable box-office star, and he will garner pregnant interest as a free agent if he chooses that path. The UFC extended the time on his contract for vi months in late 2021 after Diaz reportedly turned downwardly a fight, which the promotion can practise contractually. So, it'southward unlikely we'll encounter Diaz in the Octagon until the summertime at the earliest. That will be the final fight on his contract and a pivotal one for his futurity.

Whom should the last fight on Diaz's UFC contract exist against?

Okamoto: Conor McGregor. Diaz wanted to fight out his contract at the cease of final year and the beginning of this year, but the UFC is beingness selective about the final fight on his deal. The McGregor-Diaz trilogy is a massive fight, and the UFC doesn't desire to lose its opportunity to brand information technology. At present, the promotion too can't expect Diaz to sit and wait forever, and when it comes to McGregor'southward schedule, at that place are never guarantees. But for the time existence, that'due south the fight the UFC wants to brand for Diaz, and no one tin can arraign the promotion for feeling that mode. It's the fight to make.

Raimondi: Dustin Poirier. Diaz wants that fight, and and then does Poirier. The UFC is interested, too. Right at present, it's just a timing consequence. The UFC extended Diaz'south contract, so information technology technically does not have to offer him another fight until late spring or early summer. Diaz and Poirier were supposed to fight at MSG in 2018, but the tour fell through. There is bad blood there. And a win over Diaz would help Poirier bounce back from his championship loss to Charles Oliveira. For Diaz, Poirier represents a guy he doesn't like and a big name who vanquish McGregor twice last year.

The UFC volition be very tempted to practice McGregor vs. Diaz three. But there are nonetheless questions well-nigh McGregor's health, as he fractured a leg confronting Poirier last July. He said he would be able to spar in Apr, but in that location's no bodily time frame yet for his render. Plus, if Diaz wants to striking the open up market, he'd be in extreme demand coming off a trilogy victory over McGregor. It'due south part of the fight business to send away an approachable fighter with the almost challenging fight possible. Just the UFC might exist seduced by the McGregor-Diaz trilogy payday.

What could life look similar for Diaz if he leaves the UFC?

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i:37

Dana White on when Conor McGregor could return to the UFC

Dana White evaluates Conor McGregor'due south 2021 in the UFC and discusses when he thinks "The Notorious" could render in 2022.

Okamoto: Lucrative. Either style, Diaz's future is bonny, but he doesn't demand the UFC to get paid. Any MMA promotion would dear to have him and might even be willing to sign him to one-fight deals if that'southward what it takes. Interest in Diaz wouldn't exist tied but to the United States or MMA.

A boxing friction match against Jake Paul is an obvious possibility, but not the only ane. Life outside the UFC would likely involve Diaz partnering with the highest applicant, probably on brusque-term deals that would allow him the freedom to pursue the most profitable opportunities every bit they present themselves. It would mean less relevant fights for him in terms of any championship aspirations but plenty of money and flexibility.

Raimondi: Diaz volition command a boatload of coin regardless of what happens in the final fight of his deal. He'southward one of the biggest names in MMA and one of the biggest names in combat sports. Diaz's fights against McGregor are among the highest-selling pay-per-views in UFC history. Whatever he does side by side, Diaz is a feasible pay-per-view headliner every bit an A-side or a B-side.

It's unlikely Diaz would go somewhere similar a PFL (Professional Fighters League) or Bellator, at to the lowest degree non on a long-term contract. Merely Diaz and his blood brother Nick do accept a good relationship with Bellator president Scott Coker going back to the days of Nick fighting for Strikeforce.

Boxing would make a lot of sense. Diaz is a longtime training partner of erstwhile pinnacle pound-for-pound boxer Andre Ward, and Ward has praised Diaz'south ability in the squared circumvolve. He could challenge himself at that place, maybe confronting Jake Paul, which would be ane of the about meaning pay-per-view events of the year if it happened. One could imagine Diaz boxing UFC legend Anderson Silva, who went 2-0 as a boxer in 2021.

Prediction: How does this end for Diaz?

Okamoto: I think Diaz will re-sign with the UFC. The Diaz-McGregor trilogy volition happen in 2022, and before that fight, Diaz and the UFC volition come to terms with a new bargain. Diaz wants to fight in a premier organization. Exploring other options will be tantalizing, simply ultimately he'll re-sign.

Raimondi: Diaz tries his hand at battle. Maybe with Triller, perhaps against Paul. Maybe both. The restrictiveness of the UFC doesn't ever work nifty with Diaz, who is a gratis spirit and prefers to do things his way. Boxing would let him greater flexibility and shorter contracts. The massive paydays won't hurt, either.

How did Conor McGregor and the UFC go to this point?

Okamoto: McGregor signed a massive half-dozen-fight contract with the UFC in 2018, but before his blockbuster title fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Since then, McGregor has fought four times and recently confirmed two fights left on his deal.

How did McGregor arrive at this spot in his contract? The pandemic and the lost year of 2020 played a role. McGregor went into that year with talks of a "season." He said he wanted to be active, and while some things the Irishman says are rant, behind the scenes, there was a lot of back up to dorsum up what he was saying. He was in a good place. He was motivated.

There was frustration when the pandemic hit, and he couldn't book fights timely. His January 2021 fight against Dustin Poirier was one McGregor tried to force the UFC into booking by announcing beforehand he intended to do it for charity outside of the promotion.

It'southward also worth noting the Manny Pacquiao rumors that swirled ahead of that fight against Poirier a year ago. Had McGregor trounce Poirier, in that location is a strong chance he would take boxed Pacquiao later in the year.

Who knows what impact those factors would have had on his contract condition? Every bit information technology stands, information technology has been 2 relatively inactive, disappointing years for McGregor leading into the final two fights of his deal.

Whom should the last fight on McGregor's UFC contract be confronting?

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0:24

Conor McGregor stares downwards Max Holloway from dwelling house

Conor McGregor posts a video of himself pacing his living room and staring down Max Holloway before Holloway'south fight.

Okamoto: It depends on how his side by side fight goes. If McGregor returns from his leg injury to a trilogy bout against Diaz and wins, the UFC probable books him in a lightweight title fight. That's unfair to the rest of the 155-pound partitioning, but it's reality. McGregor against Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, Islam Makhachev, Beneil Dariush -- it honestly doesn't affair who it is. Some of those matchups would be bigger than others, simply if it's McGregor trying to win a championship fight for the first time since 2016, it's coin in the banking concern.

If he were to lose to Diaz, it'd be about finding McGregor an opponent that makes the most money. If the UFC is ever in a situation where information technology has only one fight left with McGregor, await the promotion to want to cash in equally much every bit possible. Peradventure Jorge Masvidal or Max Holloway?

Raimondi: At that place are and then many variables here. When does McGregor come back from a broken leg? Who is his start opponent dorsum? Information technology does seem similar in that location is a swell of interest in doing McGregor-Diaz iii for McGregor'due south improvement fight, but it'south no lock. Let's say that'due south the one, for statement's sake. If McGregor wins that tour, information technology'due south enormous, and he could call his shot. More than than probable, the UFC would book him in a championship fight at that point.

The reason is twofold. 1, McGregor is the biggest star in the sport's history, and his fighting for the title is a surefire blockbuster. If McGregor wins and becomes champion -- boom, the UFC's champions clause kicks in, and the promotion would extend his contract.

Those two things are probably the best-instance scenario for the UFC. If McGregor faces Diaz next and loses, expect the UFC to renegotiate a new deal with McGregor or book him in a very tough fight for the final tour on his contract. Also, do not rule out a potential 4th fight against Poirier somewhere in there, as McGregor probable feels like there is unfinished business.

What could life look like for McGregor if he leaves the UFC?

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1:28

White: Not putting chugalug on Ngannou had nothing to do with 'disrespect'

Dana White acknowledges he didn't put the belt on Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 but says no disrespect was meant past information technology.

Okamoto: One boxing match per twelvemonth, perhaps. If McGregor leaves the UFC, I don't see a earth where he regularly competes in MMA for any other promotion. The money fights don't exist for him outside of the UFC. Don't become me wrong: Annihilation that McGregor touches turns to aureate, just gold isn't enough these days. The only MMA fights that brand sense for McGregor in terms of prestige, name value and marketability are in the UFC. If he were to fight out his contract, the most likely path forrad would be i wildly lucrative boxing lucifer every 12 to eighteen months.

Raimondi: McGregor Sports & Entertainment takes flight. McGregor could become a fighter-promoter the mode Floyd Mayweather has washed for years. He could build his fight cards in MMA or battle and lend his name and vocalization to them as a front man. Once or twice a yr, he could compete in the main events for his promotion against opponents he could handpick. McGregor Sports & Entertainment is already an entity and was one of McGregor's promoters for the Mayweather vs. McGregor fight. The Irishman'southward business is undoubtedly something he would similar to grow in the future, whether he's in the UFC or outside of it.

There would be some lucrative boxing matches out there for McGregor. Paul has already chosen him out several times. At one betoken, it seemed likely that McGregor would box Pacquiao. Heck, Mayweather vs. McGregor 2 could even come into the fold if McGregor is a free agent. McGregor would have the ability to make an obscene amount of money, and as someone who cherishes the Forbes list of highest-paid athletes every year, that could be highly-seasoned.

Prediction: How does this end for McGregor?

Okamoto: Re-signs with the UFC. McGregor and the UFC have had bug over the years, but they they remain relatively positive as partners considering of the mutually beneficial relationship. If McGregor notwithstanding has an crawling to box, the UFC could get behind his ambition once more, and I believe it would do so again under the right circumstances. I don't see either side walking away from the other after this contract is up.

Raimondi: McGregor is worth so much to the UFC. It would exist shocking if McGregor went elsewhere. And honestly, despite some ups and downs over the years, McGregor has seemed pretty happy with the UFC, as well. They have been excellent partners for each other. There'south a globe where both sides could exist satisfied with a future bargain that allows McGregor to box. Maybe McGregor even gets that stake in the UFC he has been asking for since 2016.

How did Francis Ngannou and the UFC go to this indicate?

Raimondi: The animosity between the UFC and Ngannou has been building upwardly for years.

In 2018, following Ngannou'southward championship loss to Stipe Miocic, UFC president Dana White said in interviews that Ngannou's ego had begun to go the best of him. Ngannou wasn't a fan of those comments and the 2 have not seen eye to eye since then.

The relationship was strained further after Ngannou won the UFC heavyweight title from Miocic at UFC 260 in March 2021. The UFC wanted Ngannou to plow around and defend the championship last Baronial against Derrick Lewis at UFC 265. Ngannou had already planned a trip to his home state of Cameroon in the late bound and early summer, though, and he wouldn't be prepare for an early on August date.

Rather than wait for Ngannou, who said he could fight in September, the UFC decided to have Lewis fight Ciryl Gane for the acting heavyweight title instead. That didn't sit right with Ngannou, who had merely won the title five months before and had sat around waiting for his earned title fight for more than a year while Miocic and Daniel Cormier settled their trilogy. Backside the scenes, Ngannou's contract was nearing its end with no extension in place.

Gane ended up beating Lewis, setting up a title tour between Ngannou and Gane -- a pair of former teammates in Paris -- last month at UFC 270. In the pb-up to the fight, Ngannou felt similar the UFC did him no favors. He said he idea the promotion fix him upward to walk by Gane and Ngannou's estranged former motorbus, Fernand Lopez, at Madison Foursquare Garden last November to build drama for the tour. The incident was defenseless on video, with Ngannou walking by and ignoring Lopez and Gane. And then, sparring footage between Ngannou and Gane surfaced, making Gane wait skillful. Ngannou said he thought the UFC was again messing with him.

Had Gane defeated Ngannou concluding calendar month, Ngannou would take been a gratuitous amanuensis. Merely because he won, the UFC'south champions clause kicks in and Ngannou remains nether contract for one yr or three fights, whichever comes earliest. The 35-yr-quondam knockout artist has been adamant about wanting to box before retiring, and that'southward one of several sticking points with the UFC. Ngannou has said he is willing to await out the twelvemonth and not compete again under this contract. To further muddy things, Ngannou went into the Gane fight with a torn MCL and damaged ACL, which will crave surgery. Ngannou will be out for at to the lowest degree 9 months.

Whom should Ngannou'southward last fight be against?

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0:41

Ngannou says he won't fight again without new UFC contract

Francis Ngannou tells Brett Okamoto he doesn't program to fight over again without a new UFC contract.

Okamoto: We might have already seen Ngannou'south last fight in the UFC. If he doesn't sign a new deal over the adjacent year, so I don't see him walking to the Octagon always again. So, it's hard to answer this question -- or information technology's straightforward, depending on how you wait at information technology. If he doesn't stay with the UFC, the respond to this item question is Gane, and it has already happened. He won't have a big "last fight" transport-off.

Raimondi: It might have already happened against Gane. Ngannou has said he won't compete again under this electric current contract with the UFC, which pays simply a guaranteed $600,000 per fight. So, he might wait out the year and become a free amanuensis. He said last week on "The MMA Hr" that he has left virtually $7 million in offers from the UFC on the table considering accepting that meant calculation more fights to his UFC contract.

Ngannou also said that the UFC emailed his agent, Marquel Martin, threatening to sue him the night of Ngannou's fight confronting Gane. The UFC's merits, Ngannou noted, is that Martin had improper conversations with Jake Paul'southward team most boxing while Ngannou was under UFC contract.

The two sides are not on solid terms right now, and with Ngannou facing an extended amount of time on the shelf because of the knee injury, it seems similar there's a good chance he'll enter free agency without fighting again. If he does fight once more for the UFC, Information technology will be nether a newly negotiated contract -- rendering this question largely moot.

What could life await like for Ngannou if he leaves the UFC?

Okamoto: That's an interesting question, equally he turned down multiple offers from the UFC on a new bargain. I believe life exterior the UFC would include the one thing Ngannou seems to want more than anything: a loftier-profile battle friction match. I retrieve it's realistic for him to book a fight against someone such as Tyson Fury or Deontay Wilder in 2023. Beyond that, it gets a little cloudy. Ngannou is a fantastic competitor and the best MMA heavyweight on the planet, but no, I'm not likewise fond of his chances against a seasoned heavyweight boxer. I retrieve the boxing play could very well be a lucrative ane-and-done, and then we'd see him back in MMA. An organization such as the PFL could be a skilful fit.

Raimondi: This is an easy question to answer. Just listen to Ngannou's interviews. The man's dream, going back to his time excavation sand mines in Cameroon, has been to go the boxing world champion. That's why he left Cameroon for Kingdom of morocco and why he hopped on a raft most the Strait of Gibraltar en route to Europe. Ngannou was looking for someone to train him in boxing, and MMA was just something suggested to him in Paris past erstwhile passenger vehicle Didier Carmont. Information technology turns out, he was very good at it -- good plenty to go the UFC heavyweight champion.

But Ngannou's middle has e'er been with boxing, and he seems determined that he volition box before he retires. Fury has already called him out on social media. Fifty-fifty if Ngannou would be a massive underdog, that could be a existent fight. Ngannou is a big enough proper noun and he certainly looks the part of getting a fight with Fury, Wilder or Anthony Joshua. Win or lose, the payday will be massive. Fury is making north of $32 million for his next bout against Dillian Whyte, and Ngannou has a more prominent proper name than Whyte.

Prediction: How does this end for Ngannou?

Okamoto: I was ever pretty optimistic that Ngannou and the UFC would eventually figure information technology out and he would sign a new bargain. But afterwards hearing him talk at the UFC 270 postfight news briefing, I am less so. He didn't just sound like someone who was willing to exit the UFC; Ngannou sounded like someone who was resigned to the likelihood he is leaving the UFC. There'south no rush right now to finalize a decision, as Ngannou is nether contract through 2022 and he tin can't fight anyway because of injury.

A lot can change over a twelvemonth, giving the two sides time to hash something out. This situation is impossible to predict. Simply taking my lead from what Ngannou said at UFC 270, I'll put his chances of leaving the UFC at 51%. Either manner, we seem to be heading for an acting heavyweight title fight. Given the dubiousness around Ngannou's future and the fact he needs genu surgery, an interim title fight would brand sense. And the fight to make for the interim title would be Stipe Miocic vs. Jon Jones.

Raimondi: Ngannou is going to box. The question is whether information technology's with the UFC's approving or as a free agent. Either thing could happen, though it sure feels like at this point that Ngannou and the UFC are on the outs, especially given the legal threats to Martin, on fight night, no less. That's not to say this is a done deal. In that location is enough of time for the UFC and Ngannou to make a deal. But if they don't, i would expect Ngannou's next fight to be in a boxing band erstwhile in 2023 against a big heavyweight name.